Yes, another group to consider is athletes.
Healthy, fit young soccer and football players are dropping like flies from sudden heart attacks after they’ve been vaccinated. The percentage increase has been huge.
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That could be it. I will try to track it down.
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Dear Cogito, very kind of you but I do not have a biological background at all - just a physics one. On your two points:
The current surge - yes, in England at least, high numbers of cases but low deaths at the moment - a moving average of just over 100 a day now for the whole UK (well over 1000 in previous beta and delta peaks). As you say, we don’t know yet what Omicron will bring but viruses do often tend to become better at preserving their hosts over time so we can hope for positive news here, particularly if you, like me, dislike all this bossy government.
The number of cases is rising in England very sharply particularly Omicron variants in London, Birmingham and Manchester, interestingly areas where vaccine uptake has been lower than the rest of England. If you look at the graphs here for vaccine uptake and then for cases, you can see some interesting things comparing Cases and Vaccination by county: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/cases
The second question you pose - surely it is the most obvious and simple explanation is that the vaccines have worked on alpha to delta?
Yes I agree with you on difficulties in the data particularly between countries with differeing views of what a death from covid or a death with covid means, especially in the very old!
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Dear Chauncey Tinker, the ASMR is not a good metric.
There were over 607,000 deaths registered in 2020 (source ONS). There has not been such a sharp peak since the Spanish flu of 1918, at the end of the first world war. From 2015 to 2019 there were about 530,000 each year so the rate of death has jumped enormously during covid.
I think you need to treat the ASMR as a different thing from the death rate. It is a statistical conceit based on a standard death rate model, used to compare death rates for something in countries with different age profiles. So two different countries with the same ASMR for can have completely different mortality rates - depending on the age distributions of their populations - African countries are quite young - Japan is quite old -etc.
This is the actual death rate in England - sorry it is from Statistia not ONS but ONS is similar but only goes up to 2018 at the moment:
Excellent point. By all accounts, I think the vaccines are duds and the danger is increasingly worrisome
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Is not the all cause excess deaths the best figure to watch for?
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I think an epidemiologist would look at excess deaths resulting from Covid - there are plenty of charts of these and some with vaccinated and unvaccinated stats. Still looks like vaccinations are a good thing to me - sorry.
My point is only that when the argument above picks up on the ASMR, you get the excess deaths - I think - for the 2013 Europeans Standard Population model. It simply doesn’t make any sense to anyone unless you are specifically looking to see if the particular country you are interested in is doing better or worse than another country for a particular sex and age group, because it compensates statistically for bulges in age population for a particular pair of countries.
What this forum is looking at is whether vaccinated or unvaccinated populations do better. It isn’t trying to compare the UK’s health to Denmark’s. You need a Vaccine Adjusted Mortality Rate.
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“The end of the pandemic is primarily a social and political decision.
Since we have no technology to eradicate the virus, we must learn to live with it.”
Please take a look at this article, the source of that quotation:
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When all is said and done, there will a lot of crow to be eaten.
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The fact that our governments have been studiously ignoring common sense advice like this, and instead irresponsibly pushing a destructive, self-serving agenda at all costs, just confirms what was already obvious - they are completely corrupt, and deliberately exploiting humanity to achieve their goal of totalitarian control.
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Fair enough. If the vaccines were effective, we would expect to see a dramatic fall in covid deaths and all cause excess deaths. This has decidedly not happened. In fact, just the opposite has occurred.
QED
Cheers
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Comparing total death numbers in 2020 with 1918 is wildly misleading because the UK population has roughly doubled since then. Even if we look at the crude mortality rate we only have to go back as far as 2003 to find an equally high rate, and every year before that was higher than 2020 as far back as records began. The graph in your reply is not useful at all in this debate for just that reason, the population does not remain constant. I could share the crude mortality rate graph but believe me it doesn’t look hugely different from the ASMR graph.
We could point a finger at the big jump from 2012 to 2018 in your graph and ask why nobody noticed this at the time? The answer is very simple, as a percentage of the population overall these are very small numbers, and the population has been rapidly increasing during this same period due to mass immigration (net migration hit an all time high peak during Theresa May’s time in office).
It is important to consider the fact that the UK population is aging, obviously if there are disproportionately more old people now than there were 20 years ago this puts the mortality rate today in a different light. That is why the ASMR should be looked at as well, it is not a “statistical conceit” to take the changing age profile of the UK into account.
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By the way, you haven’t responded to my very important point that I labelled Fact 1. When we’re talking about the effectiveness of the jabs we should be considering the fact that this was a mass jabbing program across all age ranges when only the over 80s were at significant risk.
This is really important because if a young person (especially a child) suffers any long term injury from the jabs, then that is potentially going to have a huge impact on their overall quality of life across a whole lifespan. Remember also we have no long term safety data as well, so we are literally gambling with the lives of young people supposedly to protect the very old. Myocarditis and pericarditis are known dangers (among others) from the jabs, and injuring a child’s heart even temporarily to prolong the lives of people in their 80s (many of whom as I said are already ill with serious co-morbidities) is surely inexcusable, don’t you agree?
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I’m not sure if this addressed to me ot westrop, but I agree. The very small clinical trials of the new agents were utterly inadequate.
Several groups of people were not included in those trials - including people under 18 years, pregnant and breast feeding women, and the immunocompromised.
The risk of children dying is statistically near zero. So giving these jabs to this group is particularly heinous.
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It was addressed to westrop8 don’t worry I’m clear on your views on this already Cogito, thanks.
I think that sometimes there’s a slight flaw in this commenting system where replies don’t appear immediately as responses to the target person, but I could be imagining it.
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I agree with you, Chauncey Tinker, that the absolute numbers are not terribly probative because of the increase in population in England, largely because of immigration. My point is simply that there have been excess deaths from Covid and that there is certainly a very clear spike in a graph of death numbers in England, and that was its very simple usefulness. If you want to be more scientific, Oxford’s Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science estimate of excess deaths in 2020 from covid here in the BMJ: https://jech.bmj.com/content/75/8/735. It is 15% over what was expected historically.
But it is interesting that the Spanish flu killed over 50 million and Covid has only killed something over 5 million. With Spanish flu, people died of secondary bacterial pneumonia. With, Covid people die from multiple organ failure.With either, people can die of respiratory failure. There is better medicine in 2021.
You say nobody noticed the rising mortality 2012-2018. Everybody noticed the rising death rate change in 2012-2018. It was the same in quite a few richer European countries like Germany, which has not had many Covid deaths compared with us. There was endless speculation in this time before Covid in the press and endless discussion of air quality as a factor, as well as obesity. But, whatever the cause, if you push on the graph at its slope from 2012, it cuts off well below the Covid peak in 2019.
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Your “fact 1”: I sort of agree and don’t agree! Your point was that the average age of those dying was over 80 yet the whole population were given access to jabs.
As far as I can glean, the only places where covid jabs are compulsory for adults are Micronesia, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan with plans for similar in Austria and Germany for next year. Covid seems to have bumped up the authoritarian instincts of the usual suspects.
If it is a matter of personal choice rather than legal obligation, my own personal view is that it is worthwhile having hte vaccine at all ages unless you know you are at higher risk of a complication, long term uncertainties nothwithstanding. My view (above) is that you are less likely to infect your family and friends and you are less likely to have serious illness (above) if you are vaccinated, whatever your age. If you are older, the statistics improve this in favour of the vaccine. If you yourself think that the side effects are underreported and the benefits over-hyped, I completely respect your choice here, but not share it.
If you are actually wanting to stop others from getting a vaccination, I would oppose you. I think human life is as valuable at 80 as at 1 and would not dream of imposing any sort of restrictions on others who seek to preserve their own life by their own judgment. If you are not arguing for banning vaccines, but simply saying it is a matter of your own free will whether you take the vaccine or not, I agree.
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I haven’t ever suggested such a thing. What I do have a problem with though is the fact that people have been persuaded to take the injections without proper informed consent, in fact the public have been wildly misled about the danger.
An opinion poll revealed that the public have a vastly exaggerated sense of the danger from this COVID-19, many believe that it is very dangerous for all age ranges. 40%, even thought that the death toll was over 5% of the population, that would have been over 3.25 million deaths in the UK alone. This has come about because the mainstream media, the govt., and academics, together have been relentlessly bombarding the public with fear-mongering pseudo-news.
The public have also been kept in the dark about the dangers from the jabs. Any attempt to raise the subject of reports to the Yellow Card system in the UK have been met with derision where they have even been mentioned, yet there have been over a million potential reactions reported including over 1800 deaths (and counting). Some experts believe these numbers are only a fraction of the real number of adverse reactions, there have been many accounts of doctors being reluctant to admit that any medical condition might be a reaction to the jab.
A BBC presenter on a CHILDREN’s TV program stated that the jabs were 100% safe, a claim they later had to retract. This is all the more shocking in light of the fact that children are allowed to override their parents’ decision if the parents objected.
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I think that there has been exaggeration of the safety and exaggeration of the hazards and people should make their own minds up, not Government. Should Government persuade? It has to if it has a socialised medical service because the mantra in the UK has been, throughout, to help the NHS - our official church in the UK and an unusually inefficient way of funding health care. It follows as night follows day that if the nhs cannot cope with all the intesnive care beds in the alpha wave and do essential work on cancer etc (and it could not cope) then Government will try to persuade people to vaccinate.
On top of this, they have undermined our freedoms with respect to children, by saying that if a parent does not want a child vaccinated adn the child wants to be vaccinated, then “Gillick competence” tests will be applied and if the child is competent, then it will be vaccinated against the parents’ wishes. Gillick competence is “full appreciation” of the tretament. I personally think the parents are the ones who should judge and the state should buzz off. I also think the judgment in M v H and P and T [2020] is wrong for the same reasons.
Whether people are misled - both ways, for and against - is less of an issue to me than whether Government is getting too big for its breeches.
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I am opposed to the welfare state period. This problem we face right now is not unique to the UK/NHS however, we are up against a global threat, a corporatist new world order that practically owns the media, academia, and consequently governments just about everywhere. These people don’t perceive China as a threat because they want to run the world on the same lines as the Chinese govt. does. They don’t perceive Islam as a threat either, because they have the same totalitarian mindset. The mess we’re in has come about thanks to the combined effects of socialist ideology and universal suffrage, which have opened the door to a deeply corrupt elite who have become far too powerful.
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