Right now, the Taliban don’t seem to face a challenge by any armed group. But that will change quickly. Rival Islamist groups are already present, controlling chunks of territory. ISIS is planted in Konar and Loghar, while another outfit known as Khorasan and promising to create a new caliphate covering parts of Central Asia, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran is also busy recruiting. The Taliban itself is a far from united outfit with Pakistan, Islamic Republic in Iran and, it seems even Turkey, China and Russia having their respective “contacts” in the movement.
Even in the core structure of Taliban, such groups as the Haqqani network, now top dog in the movement, has a long history of deadly rivalry with various other groups.
More threatening than that the Taliban may face new opposition groups emerging on the basis of ethnic identities. The Tajiks, accounting for some 32 percent of the population are unlikely to submit to a mainly Pushtun domination and may revive their old anti-Taliban alliance with Uzbeks and Hazarahs, who have their own blood-stained history with Taliban.
More importantly, Taliban may face an urban people-based opposition that was often absent in Afghan politics.
Afghanistan will be an ungoverned land. And that is bad news for the whole world, as an ungoverned land is the ideal location for terrorist groups of all denominations.
2 Likes
Yes, I’m sure it will be a problem for the world.
I’d like to think it will be a good thing for the world that these rival groups are going to stay busy fighting among themselves, and neglect their focus on world domination. But that’s probably too much to hope for.
3 Likes